Stage 1: Define the Work with a WBS
All credible estimation starts with a Work Breakdown Structure (WBS). This isn't a schedule or a task list; it's a hierarchical map of everything your project will deliver. The goal is to break down the total scope into small, manageable "work packages." This section helps you understand the core principles of creating a solid WBS as your project's foundation.
Principle: Nouns, Not Verbs
A WBS item must be a deliverable (a thing), not an activity (an action). This simple rule ensures your WBS remains a pure representation of scope, which is the input for scheduling.
✓ Correct (Deliverable):
"Power Distribution Board"
✗ Incorrect (Activity):
"Design the Board"
Example WBS Hierarchy
Visually, a WBS decomposes the project into smaller and smaller pieces, down to the "work package" level where estimation occurs.
Stage 2: Estimate the Effort with the Right Tool
Once you have a work package, you need to estimate the effort it requires. No single method works for everything. Robotics projects mix research, manufacturing, and software, so a hybrid approach is best. Use this interactive toolkit to select the right estimation method for your task and calculate an initial effort estimate.
Three-Point (PERT) Estimation
For new or uncertain work, a single guess is dangerous. PERT uses three estimates to create a more realistic, risk-weighted forecast. Enter your hours below to calculate the expected effort.
Expected Effort (E):
25.33 hours
Standard Deviation: 4.00 (Risk Measure)
Agile Estimation (Planning Poker)
For software, time-based estimates are often inaccurate. Agile teams use "Story Points"—an abstract measure of effort, complexity, and risk. The team discusses a task and uses Planning Poker to vote on a point value, fostering consensus.
Typical Story Point Scale (Modified Fibonacci):
The goal is not hours, but a shared understanding of relative size. Divergent votes trigger a discussion to uncover hidden assumptions.
Parametric & Analogous Estimation
For work you've done before, use historical data. This is faster and great for well-understood, scalable tasks.
Parametric Example
You know from past projects it takes about 0.75 hours to terminate and test one wire.
Analogous Example
The last robot's chassis took 80 hours to machine. This new one is 25% more complex.
Stage 3: Calculate the Real-World Timeline
An effort estimate is not a schedule. An 8-hour task rarely takes one 8-hour day. This interactive calculator helps you convert your "ideal effort" estimate into a realistic timeline by accounting for real-world factors like meetings, overhead, individual focus, and robotics-specific risks.
Timeline Calculator
The percentage of productive time that becomes actual completed work. Start with 70-80% if unsure.
3. Add Robotics Multipliers (Risk Buffers)
Daily Capacity Breakdown
Final Realistic Timeline:
5.46 Days
(25.33 ideal hours / (6 productive hours/day * 0.85 focus) + 10% risk buffer)
Stage 4: Plan the Horizon
Granular estimates are for near-term work. For long-range planning (quarters, years), you need to zoom out. The goal is strategic alignment, not false precision. This is done with product roadmaps and coarse-grained estimation, a technique called "Rolling Wave Planning."
Rolling Wave Planning Visualized
Q2 (Now)
High Detail
• WP 1: PDB Design
• WP 2: SLAM Module
• WP 3: Chassis Fab
Q3
Epic A
Size: L
Q4
Epic B
Size: M
Q1
Epic C
Size: M
You plan the immediate quarter in high detail (work packages). Future quarters are planned with large "epics" sized with T-shirts (S, M, L). As you get closer, you break the next epic down into detailed work packages. This keeps your long-range plan flexible while your short-term plan is actionable.